Laying Away Favourites in Football: A Betting Strategy Explained
What is Laying Away Favourites?
Laying away favourites in football betting is a strategy where bettors wager against the favourite team when they are playing away from home. Instead of backing the underdog, you bet that the favourite will not win. In sports exchanges like Betfair, this is known as “laying” the favourite. The beauty of this strategy is that it covers two outcomes — either the underdog wins or the match ends in a draw.
This approach is particularly useful when the away team is heavily favoured by bookmakers but faces a difficult environment or context, such as a challenging away game.
How to Play It:
- Sports Exchanges (Lay Betting): Laying a bet involves placing a bet that a particular outcome won’t happen. So, if you lay the away favourite, you’re betting that the away team will not win. If the game ends in a draw or the home team wins, your bet is successful.
- Double Chance 1X Betting: For those who prefer traditional bookmakers over betting exchanges, you can apply this strategy by backing the “Double Chance” market. In this case, you’d choose the “1X” option, meaning the home team either wins or draws. This market is especially useful if you don’t have access to an exchange but still want to profit from the favourite failing to win.
Why is it a Good Idea?
Backing the favourite is a common betting instinct, especially for casual punters. However, favourites can often be overpriced and overhyped, particularly when playing away from home. Bookmakers frequently inflate odds for favourites due to the high volume of bets placed on them, creating value opportunities for more informed bettors to oppose them.
Football is unpredictable, especially in away games where even the best teams face challenges such as unfamiliar stadiums, travel fatigue, and stronger home support for the opposition. While favourites may appear strong on paper, away matches can quickly shift in unexpected ways, offering lucrative opportunities to those betting against them.
Tendency to Back Favourites – Poor Value Odds
A major reason why laying favourites can be profitable is the tendency of the betting market to overvalue favourites. Since most casual bettors gravitate toward backing the better-known or stronger team, bookmakers often offer poor value odds on these away teams. In essence, the risk of the favourite not winning is often undervalued, leading to opportunities to exploit the market by laying them.
When the odds for the favourite are too short (i.e., low), the value lies in betting against them. This happens more frequently in away games where the dynamics can be unpredictable, making it advantageous to lay the away favourites in such scenarios.
What Else to Consider?
- Underdog Motivation: The home team often has more motivation, especially when facing a stronger opponent. Playing in front of home fans can provide an extra boost, making an upset or a draw more likely than expected.
- Fatigue and Travel Impact: Away teams, especially in tightly scheduled leagues or international competitions, often deal with travel fatigue, which can affect their performance.
- Key Missing Players: Injuries or suspensions can significantly weaken an away favourite, making them less likely to win, even if they are the better team overall.
- Weather and Pitch Conditions: Weather or poor pitch conditions can also be an equalizer, benefiting home teams who are more familiar with the surface and surroundings.
- Shaky patches of the form: Some away favourites go through uneasy periods in their seasons (e.g. early season – no full squad available for preseason; managerial merry-go-rounds – teams underperforming leading to sacking of managers; players under huge pressure from fans and club etc.)
How to spot “false” away favourites?
Following current football scores and affairs helps build a better understanding of the markets and prices. However, it takes a lot of experience and skill to analyze the odds and find value prices. We use the Analytics PRO tool from Bet The Builder to help us find the most profitable angles for Laying Away Favourites.
These tables are already sorted by the highest average past profitability from our statistical models. Furthermore, we can filter these matches by lowest away odds to find our away favourites for laying. Let’s run you through some of the angles that we can quickly access and analyze:
Let’s look at whether it pays off to LAY the away favourite @ 1.71 in this case:
Long-Term Trends (Last 3 Seasons)
Looking at long-term trends, we analyze patterns that emerge over a significant sample size of matches. This type of data helps us understand a team’s general performance and tendencies when faced with certain situations, such as playing at home, playing away, or encountering specific types of opponents. In this case, we analyze matches against similarly priced teams:
GAIS’s Home Matches (Odds between 4.3 – 6.3)
GAIS does not have sufficient long-term data in this specific odds bracket to provide significant insights for the lay strategy.
Malmö FF’s Away Matches (Odds between 1.6 – 1.8)
- Total Matches: 10
- Profit/Loss: +2.45 units
- Average Odds: 2.46
- ROI: 24.5%
Malmö has demonstrated solid profitability in this odds bracket, indicating that while they are a favourite, there is still value in laying them under certain conditions. Given the volatility of their away form, this makes laying Malmö at these odds a valuable proposition.
Medium-Term Trends (Last 10 Home/Away Matches)
GAIS’s Last 10 Home Matches
- Total Matches: 10
- Profit/Loss: +3.79 units
- Average Odds: 1.5
- ROI: 37.9%
GAIS’s recent home form shows strength – 1 outright loss in their last 10 matches, laying GAIS opponents (when playing at home) would have been a successful strategy. With 1X Double Chance odds typically above 1.5, this trend supports the case of laying the away team.
Malmö FF’s Last 10 Away Matches
- Total Matches: 10
- Profit/Loss: +3.6 units
- Average Odds: 2.39
- ROI: 36%
Malmö’s away form has been erratic, with losses and draws in matches they were expected to win. Despite some strong performances, the inconsistency makes them a prime candidate for laying in this matchup. Furthermore, the low win odds make for good value, laying opportunities.
Short-Term Trends (Last 6 Matches)
GAIS’s Last 6 Matches
- Total Matches: 6
- Profit/Loss: +0.43 units
- Average Odds: 1.69
- ROI: 7.17%
GAIS has shown a decent run in their last 6 matches by not losing 4 matches in a row.
Malmö FF’s Last 6 Matches
- Total Matches: 6
- Profit/Loss: +2.83 units
- Average Odds: 3.11
- ROI: 47.17%
While Malmö FF lost 3 out of their last 6 matches, the low win odds (high back odds backing for the Double Chance) would have secured fantastic returns!
Head-to-Head Trends
Last 6 H2H Matches
- Total Matches: 1
- Profit/Loss: -1
- Average Odds: 3.94
- ROI: -100%
Malmö FF won their last H2H encounter 1-0 against GAIS. Despite losing this game, the scoreline 1-0 to the favourites suggests a tight affair and GAIS will take a lot of encouragement from this match.
Poisson Distribution Model
Poisson Model for Last 6 Matches
- Home xG: 0.57
- Away xG: 1.25
- Poisson Probability: 0.47 (equivalent odds: 2.13)
- Lay Away Win Value (Recent Odds): 0.05 (2.41)
The Poisson distribution model gives us valuable insight into expected goal (xG) contributions from both sides. With GAIS having a lower xG compared to Malmö FF, the home team is less likely to score multiple goals. However, the key insight here is that the market is overpricing Malmö’s chances of a win. The Poisson probability suggests a home not losing is less likely than the odds suggest.
Profitability of Laying the Away Team in Poisson Value Bracket:
League Profit/Loss (Poisson Bracket 0.03 – 0.08): +6.77 units (21.16% ROI) – from 32 matches in the Poisson value bracket.
Malmö FF’s Profit/Loss in Bracket: +1.66 units (83.00% ROI).
GAIS’s Profit/Loss in Bracket: +1.04 units (52.00% ROI)
All 4 matches (2 for each team) would have been won when laying the Away Team in similar value brackets in the past couple of seasons.
Rest Days Analysis
Lastly, for this match, we can also check additional statistical angle for the same number of rest days:
GAIS’s Rest Day Performance (3 Days Rest)
- Total Matches: 4
- Profit/Loss: +1.99 units
- Average Odds: 1.5
- ROI: 49.75%
GAIS performs exceptionally well after 3 days of rest, securing victories in all 4 of the analyzed matches. We can’t help not to notice that GAIS have had an extra day of rest for this upcoming match.
Malmö FF’s Rest Day Performance (2 Days Rest)
- Total Matches: 8
- Profit/Loss: +0.43 units
- Average Odds: 2.42
- ROI: 5.38%
Malmö FF, on the other hand, has a more mixed record when playing after 2 days of rest, especially when playing away from home. Out of the 8 analyzed matches, Malmö only won 4 of them. This further highlights their vulnerability when playing away from home with limited rest, which aligns well with the strategy of laying them.
Conclusion
The Analytics PRO data strongly suggests value in laying Malmö FF @ 1.71 in this match. Despite their high standing in the league, recent trends, the Poisson distribution model, rest day factors, and GAIS’s relatively strong home record all point towards Malmö FF’s vulnerability in this fixture.
Summary
The strategy of laying away favourites in football can offer a smart betting edge by exploiting the market’s tendency to overvalue the stronger teams playing away from home. When the favourite is priced low, particularly in away matches, the odds can often reflect an overly optimistic view of their chances. By laying the away favourite, or using markets like the Double Chance (1X), bettors can position themselves to profit from unexpected outcomes, like a draw or home win.
Historically, football matches tend to show that away favourites are priced poorly and offer less value, especially in volatile leagues or in matches where home teams have a fighting chance. Factors like travel fatigue, fan support for the home side, or a team’s inconsistent away performance can all contribute to the favourite’s vulnerability.
In the non-statistical section, we examined how subjective factors, like team morale or injuries, and psychological factors like crowd pressure or the travel burden can affect favourites on the road. While the stronger team on paper may seem likely to win, these variables often make an upset more likely than the market suggests.
In the Analytics PRO analysis, we used historical data and models like Poisson Distribution to identify patterns. These showed profitability in laying away favourites within certain odds brackets. The data supported the premise that home teams perform better than expected in many scenarios, offering a higher chance of value for bettors who back against the away favourite. The Poisson model helped identify where these betting opportunities lie and reinforced the potential for profit.
In conclusion, laying away favourites isn’t just about opposing the stronger team—it’s about recognizing when the market has overpriced their chances. This strategy takes advantage of the natural volatility of football, capitalizing on matches where the home team has better chances than the odds suggest. For bettors looking to boost their edge, this approach can provide both short- and long-term profitability when applied in the right situations, especially with proper bank management.
