The upcoming clash between SC Cambuur and Roda JC in the Eerste Divisie on 16/09/2024 is an exciting fixture for value hunters. Current market odds stand at 2.13 for a home win, 4.07 for a draw, and 3.50 for an away win. A key angle we’ll explore today is laying the home win, which gives you coverage over two potential outcomes — either a Roda JC win or a draw. The current exchange price for Lay Home Win FT (Double Chance: X2) is a tempting 1.88 (Laying @ 2.13).
Strong statistical patterns emerging from our advanced analysis tools point toward a potential opportunity in this match. Laying the home team often offers value in these types of matches, where the underdog or a stalemate becomes a more likely scenario than the odds suggest. By laying the home win, you can increase your chances of success, as you only need to avoid the home team triumph to profit.
Now, let’s dive into the data using Analytics PRO, which will guide us through the key trends, past performances, and statistical indicators that back this strategy.
Long-Term Trends (Last 3 Seasons)
SC Cambuur’s Home Matches (Odds between 2.0 – 2.3)
- Total Matches: 8
- Profit/Loss: +3.28 units
- Average Odds: 1.90
- ROI: 41%
SC Cambuur shows moderate profitability in this odds range with 6 matches not won out of their last 8 games in this odds bracket (against similar level opponents to the upcoming match).
Roda JC Kerkrade’s Away Matches (Odds between 3.3 – 3.8)
- Total Matches: 8
- Profit/Loss: +1.53 units
- Average Odds: 1.89
- ROI: 19.13%
Roda JC has performed fairly well away from home, securing wins against teams like FC Emmen and ADO Den Haag. This away strength, coupled with Cambuur’s inconsistent home record, reinforces the lay-home strategy.
Medium-Term Trends (Last 10 Home/Away Matches)
SC Cambuur’s Last 10 Home Matches
- Total Matches: 10
- Profit/Loss: +11.58 units
- Average Odds: 2.35
- ROI: 115.8%
Cambuur managed to win only 1 out of their last 10 home league matches. Laying them not to win would have produced superb profits with many prices being above Evens!
Roda JC Kerkrade’s Last 10 Away Matches
- Total Matches: 10
- Profit/Loss: +0.54 units
- Average Odds: 1.65
- ROI: 5.4%
Roda JC has been resilient on the road, although they also had some worse days and didn’t avoid heavy defeats on the road. Their ability to score away from home makes them a viable candidate for avoiding defeat.
Short-Term Trends (Last 6 Matches)
SC Cambuur’s Last 6 Matches
- Total Matches: 6
- Profit/Loss: +4.19 units
- Average Odds: 1.99
- ROI: 69.83%
Roda JC Kerkrade’s Last 6 Matches
- Total Matches: 6
- Profit/Loss: -0.94 units
- Average Odds: 1.55
- ROI: -15.67%
The short term trends for Cambuur present a nice reading for our strategy (Lay the Home Team). There is a little inconsistency in Roda’s recent form that may be contributing to this value price.
Head-to-Head Trends
Last 6 H2H Matches
- Total Matches: 2
- Profit/Loss: +1.03 units
- Average Odds: 1.52
- ROI: 51.5%
Roda JC holds the upper hand in recent head-to-head encounters with SC Cambuur, winning the last match 2-0 in May 2024, and drawing 1-1 in November 2023. This indicates that SC Cambuur has struggled to win against Roda JC, further supporting the case for laying Cambuur.
Poisson Distribution Model
Poisson Model for Last 6 Matches
- Home xG: 0.51
- Away xG: 0.75
- Poisson Probability: 0.78 (equivalent odds: 1.28)
- Lay Home Win Value (Recent Odds): 0.26 (1.88)
In terms of expected goals, Roda JC shows a higher xG (0.75) compared to Cambuur (0.51), making a home win less likely than the market odds suggest. The Poisson model supports the value in laying the home team, with a strong expected profit margin at 26%.
Laying the home teams in the Eesrte Divisie with Poisson Value in 0.24-0.29 bracket has been profitable over the past 3 seasons (7.27% ROI from 60 matches).
Home + Away Poisson Value Brackets
- SC Cambuur’s Profit/Loss: +1.45 units (145% ROI) in value bracket 0.24-0.29
- Roda JC Kerkrade’s Profit/Loss: +0.32 units (8% ROI) in value bracket 0.24-0.29
Both teams show profitability in this Poisson value bracket, but the stronger potential return is on the Roda JC side, indicating value in opposing a home win.
Conclusion
The data from Analytics PRO clearly shows that there is value in laying SC Cambuur in this match. Despite their strong historical home performance, their recent form, head-to-head record against Roda JC, and Poisson distribution model all suggest that Roda JC has a high chance of avoiding defeat.
Alternative Betting Strategies:
In-Play Trading: If SC Cambuur takes an early lead, consider laying them at a better price
Final Recommendation:
Lay SC Cambuur at 1.88 and explore additional in-play trading opportunities for the best risk management.
