As Serie B action continues, Frosinone and Modena are set to meet on August 27, 2024, in a match that promises to be a fascinating battle. With both teams eager to secure points early in the season, this fixture presents a prime opportunity to explore value in the betting markets. But the big question is: where exactly can we find that value?
In this betting preview, we’re going beyond the basics to uncover hidden opportunities. Using the Analytics PRO approach, we’ll dive into long-term, medium-term, and short-term trends, head-to-head data, Poisson distribution models, and ELO ratings to highlight the potential value in this match. Intrigued? You should be. By the end of this analysis, you’ll have a clearer idea of where to place your bets for maximum profitability.
Match Overview and Current Market Odds:
- Match Date: August 27, 2024
- Teams: Frosinone vs Modena
- Market Odds: 2.35 (Frosinone) | 3.33 (Draw) | 3.65 (Modena)
- Over 2.5 Goals Odds: 2.03
Now, let’s dig into the data and see where the hidden value might be for this Serie B clash.
1. Long-Term Trends (Last 3 Seasons)
Frosinone’s Home Matches
- No. of Matches: 10
- Profit/Loss: +4.42 units
- Average Odds: 2.06
- ROI: 44.2%
Frosinone’s home matches over the last three seasons against similarly priced opponents (based on win odds between 2.2 and 2.5) have shown impressive performance in the over 2.5 goals market. With a 44.2% ROI over 10 matches, these games tend to be open and goal-heavy. The fact that these matches are against similarly priced teams indicates that Frosinone often engages in competitive, high-scoring encounters when the odds reflect a relatively even contest.
Modena’s Away Matches
- No. of Matches: 10
- Profit/Loss: +4.59 units
- Average Odds: 2.37
- ROI: 45.9%
Modena’s away matches against similarly priced opponents (with win odds between 3.4 and 3.9) have also been highly profitable in the over 2.5 goals market, boasting a 45.9% ROI. This indicates that Modena’s away games against similarly competitive teams often feature multiple goals, reinforcing the value in the over 2.5 goals market in this context.
2. Medium-Term Trends (Last 10 Home/Away Matches)
Frosinone’s Last 10 Home Matches
- No. of Matches: 10
- Profit/Loss: +2.94 units
- Average Odds: 1.91
- ROI: 29.4%
Frosinone’s recent home form has continued to favour the over 2.5 goals market, with a solid ROI of 29.4% over their last 10 home matches. This medium-term trend reinforces the long-term data, indicating that Frosinone is consistent in delivering high-scoring games, making the over 2.5 goals market attractive.
Modena’s Last 10 Away Matches
- No. of Matches: 10
- Profit/Loss: +4.43 units
- Average Odds: 2.45
- ROI: 44.3%
Modena’s recent away matches have also been favourable for the over 2.5 goals market, with a 44.3% ROI. This medium-term trend aligns with their long-term performance, showing consistency in producing high-scoring games when playing away from home.
3. Short-Term Trends (Last 6 Matches)
Frosinone’s Last 6 Matches
- No. of Matches: 6
- Profit/Loss: +0.11 units
- Average Odds: 2.01
- ROI: 1.83%
In the short term, Frosinone has shown a slight profit in the over 2.5 goals market, with a small ROI of 1.83%. While this isn’t as strong as the longer-term trends, it still suggests that Frosinone’s matches are generally favourable for goal-heavy outcomes.
Modena’s Last 6 Matches
- No. of Matches: 6
- Profit/Loss: +1.75 units
- Average Odds: 2.53
- ROI: 29.17%
Modena’s short-term performance in the over 2.5 goals market has been impressive, with a 29.17% ROI over their last six matches. This strong recent form indicates that Modena is still consistently involved in high-scoring games, which supports a bet on over 2.5 goals.
4. Head-to-Head Data
- No. of Matches: 2
- Profit/Loss: +0.07 units
- Average Odds: 2.15
- ROI: 3.5%
The head-to-head data between Frosinone and Modena shows that their recent encounters have been slightly profitable in the over 2.5 goals market, with a 3.5% ROI. These two teams have produced mixed results, with one match seeing over 2.5 goals and the other staying under. While the head-to-head data isn’t overwhelmingly supportive, it still leans slightly toward goals being scored when these two teams meet.
5. Poisson Distribution Models
Poisson Probability and Value
- Poisson Probability: 0.68 (Equivalent Odds: 1.47)
- Value (Recent Odds): 2.03
The Poisson distribution model indicates a 68% probability of the match ending over 2.5 goals, translating to equivalent odds of 1.47. With the current market odds set at 2.03, there is a significant value gap, suggesting that the market might be underestimating the likelihood of a high-scoring game. This presents a strong case for a value bet on over 2.5 goals.
Serie B League-Wide Poisson Performance
- No. of Matches: 34
- Profit/Loss: +3.74 units
- Average Odds: 2.22
- ROI: 11.00%
Across Serie B, matches falling within a similar Poisson value bracket (0.17 – 0.22) have yielded a positive ROI of 11% over 34 matches. This league-wide trend supports the notion that the Poisson model can be a valuable tool for identifying profitable opportunities in the over 2.5 goals market in Serie B matches.
Frosinone’s Profit/Loss in Poisson Value Brackets
- No. of Matches: 2
- Profit/Loss: +1.84 units
- Average Odds: 1.92
- ROI: 92%
Frosinone has been particularly profitable in matches that fall within this Poisson value bracket, achieving an outstanding 92% ROI. This suggests that when the Poisson model predicts a higher likelihood of over 2.5 goals, Frosinone’s matches often deliver.
Modena’s Profit/Loss in Poisson Value Brackets
- No. of Matches: 4
- Profit/Loss: -1.93 units
- Average Odds: 2.11
- ROI: -48.25%
Modena, on the other hand, has underperformed in similar Poisson value brackets, resulting in a negative ROI of -48.25%. Only 1 out of their 4 matches finished in over 2.5 goals. Although, 3 of those matches saw 2 or more goals.
Rest Days Analysis: Recent Matches (2 vs 3 days of rest)
Frosinone’s Last 8 Matches (2 Rest Days)
- No. of Matches: 8
- Profit/Loss: -4.21 units
- Average Odds: 1.97
- ROI: -52.63%
Frosinone’s performance in matches where they had only 2 rest days shows a significant decline in profitability. Over these eight matches, Frosinone has struggled to deliver profitable results in the over 2.5 goals market, with an ROI of -52.63%. However, it is worth noting that despite the poor ROI, many of these games still saw 2 or more goals, which suggests that while profitability is a concern, the potential for goals remains.
Modena’s Last 8 Matches (3 Rest Days)
- No. of Matches: 8
- Profit/Loss: -5.93 units
- Average Odds: 2.26
- ROI: -74.13%
Similarly, Modena’s performance in matches after only 3 rest days has been poor, with a -74.13% ROI over the last eight matches. Only 1 out of 8 matches finished in O2.5 goals!
Concern for Over 2.5 Goals? This rest days analysis raises a concern for backing over 2.5 goals directly, given the negative profitability in recent matches for both teams under short rest conditions. This may be something to monitor further and analyze across Serie B.
Summary and Best Bet Recommendation
After weighing all the data from long-term, medium-term, short-term trends, head-to-head results, Poisson distribution models, and rest days analysis, there is compelling evidence pointing towards the potential for goals in this match. While the rest days analysis raises a slight concern, the overall trends favor goals, particularly in the over 2.5 goals market.
Best Bet Recommendation:
- Over 2.5 Goals @ 2.03: The Poisson model shows slight value, and Frosinone’s and Modena’s long-term and medium-term trends support this market. The main concern comes from rest days models where both teams tend to be involved in more low goal-scoring games.
Alternative Approaches
If you prefer to manage your risk or take advantage of in-play opportunities, here are a few alternative strategies to consider:
- Backing Over 2.5 Goals in the 15th/20th Minute and Trading After Goals:
- If the match starts slowly, the odds for over 2.5 goals will drift higher. Entering the market after 15-20 minutes and trading out after a goal is scored can provide value while managing risk.
- Splitting Your Stake:
- Consider splitting your stake between over 2.5 goals pre-match and over 1.5 goals around the 30th/45th minute if the score remains 0-0. This approach allows you to adjust your position based on the flow of the game while still capitalizing on potential goals.
Overall, while the over 2.5 goals market appears to hold value, incorporating these alternative strategies can help you maximize your returns and manage your risk more effectively.
