As the Eerste Divisie rolls into another action-packed week, Helmond Sport is set to take on VVV-Venlo on August 30, 2024. Known for its goal-fests and high-scoring matches, the Eerste Divisie has earned a reputation for offering some of the most thrilling football in Europe. The popularity of betting on over goals markets in this league is well-documented, driven by consistently low odds that reflect the expectation of goals galore in nearly every match.
However, in the midst of this goal frenzy, savvy bettors might ask: is there value in going against the grain and backing under goals markets? Could the potential for profits lie in the less popular, under goals betting markets for this upcoming clash between Helmond Sport and VVV-Venlo? In this betting preview, we’ll dive into the stats, trends, and market dynamics to uncover whether betting on fewer goals could be a winning strategy in a league notorious for its scoring prowess.
Let’s see if we can find the edge in the under goals markets for this Eerste Divisie showdown. As always, we are using Analytics PRO to help us discover the most profitable patterns and angles for every game.
Market Overview and Current Odds
- Match Date: August 30, 2024
- Teams: Helmond Sport vs VVV-Venlo
- Odds: 2.57 (Helmond Sport) | 3.72 (Draw) | 2.93 (VVV-Venlo)
The odds suggest a close match with no clear favourite, which might influence the goal market as well. But what do the stats say about the likelihood of a low-scoring game?
Market analysis focus and odds:
Long-Term Trends
Helmond Sport Home Matches: Helmond Sport has performed well in the long term when playing at home against similarly priced opponents (with win odds between 2.4 and 2.7). Over 6 matches, Helmond Sport’s home games have resulted in a profit of +1.58 units, yielding an ROI of 26.33%. These statistics indicate that Helmond Sport tends to participate in tightly contested matches with fewer goals, making under 3.5 goals markets an attractive betting option.
VVV-Venlo Away Matches: VVV-Venlo has shown a modest but positive return when playing away against opponents with win odds between 2.8 and 3.1. Across 4 matches, they’ve managed a profit of +0.31 units with a 7.75% ROI. This suggests that VVV-Venlo also leans towards lower-scoring games when facing similarly priced opposition on the road, reinforcing the idea of under 3.5 goals as a value bet.
Medium-Term Trends
Helmond Sport Home Matches: In the medium term, Helmond Sport’s performance at home has been less consistent, with a loss of -2.54 units across 10 matches and a negative ROI of -25.4%. This dip in performance highlights some volatility, but it’s important to note that the overall trend still leans towards lower-scoring games, as indicated by the consistent under 3.5 goals outcomes.
VVV-Venlo Away Matches: VVV-Venlo has fared better in the medium term with a strong showing in their last 10 away matches, resulting in a profit of +4.18 units and an ROI of 41.8%. This suggests a tendency towards defensive solidity and low-scoring matches, making the under 3.5 goals market even more appealing.
Short-Term Trends
Helmond Sport: In the short term, Helmond Sport has been profitable in their last 6 matches, earning +3.66 units with a 61% ROI. The fact that these matches have consistently been low-scoring (with multiple under 3.5 goals outcomes) aligns well with the potential value in under 3.5 goals betting for this match.
VVV-Venlo: VVV-Venlo has also shown positive results in the short term, with a profit of +1.93 units and a 32.17% ROI over their last 6 matches. Their recent games have followed a similar pattern of fewer goals, further supporting the under 3.5 goals market.
Head-to-Head Trends
The last 6 head-to-head meetings between Helmond Sport and VVV-Venlo have yielded a profit of +1.06 units with an ROI of 17.67%, based on under 3.5 goals outcomes. These matches have largely been close affairs, often resulting in under 2.5 goals. This historical data suggests a continued trend of low-scoring games when these two teams meet.
Poisson Distribution and Value Brackets
Helmond Sport: Helmond Sport’s matches within the Poisson value bracket of 0.2 to 0.25 have shown excellent profitability. Over 7 matches, the profit stands at +3.47 units with an ROI of 49.57%. The Poisson model, which compares expected goals (xG) with actual outcomes, indicates that the market frequently underestimates the likelihood of lower-scoring games, particularly in these value brackets.
VVV-Venlo: VVV-Venlo has also performed well within the same Poisson value bracket, generating +3.13 units of profit and an ROI of 52.17% over 6 matches. This trend reinforces the value in betting on under 3.5 goals, especially when the odds reflect this value bracket.
League-Wide Performance: Across the Eerste Divisie, matches within this Poisson value bracket have seen a league-wide profit of +8.14 units and an ROI of 18.50% over 44 matches. This data underscores the profitability of backing under goals in matches where the market odds fall into this value range.
Same Time Last Years – Seasonal Trends
Another interesting angle that is provided by Analytics PRO is summary of previous years matches at the same time in the season. In this case, it’s early season stage. It may help support our angle and give additional insight into the market dynamics.
Helmond Sport: Looking at the same time period in previous years, Helmond Sport has consistently participated in low-scoring matches early in the season, with a profit of +3.55 units and an ROI of 50.71% over 7 matches. This trend of slow starts and lower goals continues to support an under 3.5 goals strategy.
VVV-Venlo: Similarly, VVV-Venlo’s early-season form in the past few years has shown a profit of +1.18 units with a 23.6% ROI across 5 matches. This trend, combined with the current season’s slow start in terms of goals, suggests that under 3.5 goals betting could be a prudent approach.
Eerste Divisie Goals and Seasonal Averages
The Eerste Divisie is known for its high-scoring games, but this season has started more slowly, with a current average of 2.67 goals per game compared to the 3-season average of 3.06 goals. Additionally, the percentage of matches finishing under 3.5 goals has increased to 70%, up from the 3-season average of 64.09%.
This trend highlights a potential shift in the division’s goal-scoring patterns, at least in the early stages of the season, making under 3.5 goals a viable option for this match.
Conclusion
The data across long, medium, and short-term trends, as well as head-to-head records and Poisson value brackets, all point towards a lower-scoring game between Helmond Sport and VVV-Venlo. The current season’s slow start in the Eerste Divisie and historical results for these early stages further support this outlook.
Betting on under 3.5 goals seems to offer solid value in this matchup. Additionally, traders might consider an in-play approach, backing under goals if the match starts at a slow pace or after an early goal.
This strategy allows bettors to capitalize on potential market overreactions to the Eerste Divisie’s typically high-scoring reputation, especially during a season where the goals have been slower to arrive.
