As Bundesliga action heats up, all eyes will be on Bayer 04 Leverkusen as they host RB Leipzig on August 31, 2024. Leverkusen has been the talk of the whole world, coming off an extraordinary season where they went an astonishing 51 games in all competitions without defeat. Their dominance last season saw them winning nearly everything in their path, which has made them heavy favourites heading into this matchup. The bookmakers, punters and fans alike are backing Leverkusen to continue their imperious form.
However, while the majority are expecting another routine win for Leverkusen, our professional Analytics PRO data analysis tool has uncovered a potentially profitable angle that challenges this popular sentiment. Instead of riding the wave of Leverkusen’s success, I’m diving into the data and trends that suggest laying Leverkusen — betting against them not to win — could be the value play in this intriguing clash against RB Leipzig. Could this be the perfect opportunity to go against the grain and capitalize on a rare misstep from the league’s juggernauts? Let’s dive into the numbers and see why this could be the upset of the weekend.
Match Odds
Leverkusen: 1.83 | Draw 4.45 | Leipzig 4.38
Lay Home Win FT (Double chance: X2): 2.20
Long-Term Trends
- Bayer 04 Leverkusen’s Home Matches: Over the last three seasons, when Bayer Leverkusen has been priced between 1.7 and 1.9 in the win market, laying them would have secured a profit of +4.09 units with an impressive 58.43% ROI across 7 matches. Although most of those matches were played before their invincible season last season.
- RB Leipzig’s Away Matches: RB Leipzig’s away performance in the same odds bracket has been poor, albeit with a limited sample size of just one match, resulting in a loss of -1 unit with a -100% ROI.
Medium-Term Trends
- Bayer 04 Leverkusen’s Last 10 Home Matches: This home record of Bayer Leverkusen (8 wins and 2 draws) in most cases would be enough to put most of the punters off laying Bayer in this match. However, winning odds for the 2 successful lays would have not made this bet a true disaster.
- RB Leipzig’s Last 10 Away Matches: Leipzig’s recent away form has shown resilience, with a modest profit of +0.25 units and a 2.5% ROI over the last 10 matches. Although the profit is minimal, the fact that Leipzig has a very strong record on the road indicates they could pose a serious challenge to Leverkusen, making the lay bet a viable option.
Short-Term Trends
- Bayer 04 Leverkusen’s Last 6 Matches: More reasons for Leverkusen backers to support their case for this match – last 4 straight wins.
- RB Leipzig’s Last 6 Matches: Leipzig, on the other hand, has been in strong form and laying their opponents would have resulted in a profit of +1.6 units with a 26.67% ROI.
Head-to-Head Analysis
- Last 6 Head-to-Head Matches: The recent head-to-head data reveals a slight edge for Bayer Leverkusen, with 4 wins out of the last 6 encounters against RB Leipzig. However, the last two matches were closely contested, both decided by a single goal. This competitiveness suggests that Leipzig is capable of challenging Leverkusen, making the lay bet more appealing.
Poisson Distribution Models
This is where you may start seeing why I’m looking to oppose Leverkusen…
- Poisson Probability: The Poisson distribution model gives a probability of 0.60 (equivalent to odds of 1.67) for Bayer Leverkusen not winning this match. The current back equivalent odds of 2.2 for laying Leverkusen present a value of 0.14, which is noteworthy. This value suggests that the market might be underestimating the chances of Leverkusen not winning, making it a potentially profitable lay bet.
- League-Wide Poisson Performance: In the Bundesliga, matches within the same Poisson value bracket (0.12 – 0.17) have yielded a total profit of +12.98 units with a 20.60% ROI. This indicates that laying teams in similar scenarios has historically been profitable, supporting the idea of laying Leverkusen.
- Team-Specific Poisson Performance:
- Bayer 04 Leverkusen: In matches within this Poisson value bracket, laying Leverkusen have returned a strong profit of +3 units with a 75.00% ROI.
- RB Leipzig: Leipzig’s away matches within the same Poisson bracket have shown a modest profit of +0.14 units with a 2.80% ROI. While this is a positive indicator, it’s not overwhelming, suggesting that Leipzig has a balanced chance of either outcome.
ELO Ratings
Furthermore, we can look at similar matchups in the Bundesliga by looking at our ELO ratings profitability stats. In short, it was historically profitable to lay home teams in those encounters:
- ELO Rating Context: Bayer Leverkusen has an ELO rating of 1929, compared to RB Leipzig’s 1849, resulting in an 80-point difference favouring Leverkusen. Historically, matches with a similar ELO difference in the Bundesliga have yielded a profit of +10.25 units with an 11.26% ROI, suggesting a strong trend towards the higher ELO-rated team performing well.
- Team-Specific ELO Performance:
- Bayer 04 Leverkusen’s Home Matches: With a similar ELO difference, Leverkusen has secured a profit of +3.56 units and a 50.86% ROI across 7 home matches. This performance indicates Leverkusen’s strength at home when they have a slight ELO advantage, making the lay bet less appealing.
- RB Leipzig’s Away Matches: Leipzig has not had comparable away matches with this specific ELO difference in the past, leaving a gap in the data. However, the overall analysis and Leverkusen’s strong historical ELO performance suggest caution.
Conclusion
The analysis of long-term, medium-term, and short-term trends, as well as Poisson distribution models and ELO ratings, presents a nuanced picture. While Bayer Leverkusen’s historical strength at home and their ELO advantage suggest caution, their recent form, combined with Leipzig’s resilience on the road, offers a potential opportunity for profit by laying Leverkusen. The lay bet gains further support from the Poisson model, which shows value in the current market odds.
Leverkusen’s recent matches have shown some defensive frailties, especially in friendlies and the Super Cup. Although they have a solid squad, their defence has not been impregnable, which Leipzig could exploit.
Given that it’s still early in the season, predicting outcomes can be tricky. Both teams are still finding their rhythm, and surprises are common in the first few weeks of any league campaign
Suggested Bet Summary
- Primary Bet: Lay Bayer 04 Leverkusen (Back Double Chance X2: RB Leipzig or Draw @ 2.2).
- Alternative Strategy: Consider laying Bayer Leverkusen if they take an early lead in the first half. Given Leipzig’s ability to fight back, this could present an additional trading opportunity.
