Football betting and trading fans, prepare for another exciting opportunity to uncover value in a Scottish Premiership clash as Hibernian takes on Dundee on August 24, 2024. In this market preview, we’ll go beyond the basics to explore where the real value lies in betting on Over 0.5 First Half Goals. If you’re a fan of identifying profitable opportunities in football betting and trading, this analysis will keep you hooked.
To find the value in this market, we’ll dive deep into data and trends using advanced tools. We’re not just relying on surface-level insights; we’ll be exploring:
- Long-term trends: Evaluating both teams’ performances over the last three seasons when facing similar opponents, based on odds ranges.
- Medium-term trends: Examining Hibernian’s last 10 home matches and Dundee’s last 10 away matches to detect patterns and outcomes.
- Short-term trends: Analyzing the form of both teams over their last six matches to gauge their current momentum.
- Head-to-head statistics: Reviewing previous encounters between Hibernian and Dundee to identify recurring themes.
- Poisson Distribution models: Using mathematical models to predict the likelihood of different scorelines and outcomes.
- ELO ratings and historical performances: Comparing the teams’ ratings and historical performances to understand their relative strengths.
We’ll uncover angles that have been profitable in the past and, by comparing recent odds and statistics, we’ll pinpoint potential opportunities for success in this match.
Hibernian vs Dundee – Over 0.5 First Half Goals
The Over 0.5 First Half Goals market involves betting on at least one goal being scored in the first half of the match. This market offers an exciting betting and trading opportunity, especially when using data-driven insights to determine the likelihood of early goals.
With Over 0.5 First Half Goals priced at 1.36, there’s value to be found in this low-risk market, especially when both teams have a history of early action. For bettors who like fast-paced games and prefer the thrill of early goals, this market can be a great way to capitalize on the dynamics of the match.
But it doesn’t stop there. For traders on betting exchanges, this market provides flexibility. You can enter the market before kick-off and manage your position during the first half, potentially locking in profits if a goal is scored early. Learn more about football trading here.
We’re utilizing a professional betting & trading football analysis tool called Analytics PRO to uncover these insights and increase your chances of making informed decisions. Check out the tool here.
Current Odds Overview
At the time of writing, here are the available odds for the 1X2 market for Hibernian vs Dundee:
- Hibernian (1): 2.16
- Draw (X): 3.94
- Dundee (2): 3.52
For the Over 0.5 First Half Goals market, the odds stand at 1.36. These odds suggest that bookmakers expect a relatively low-risk scenario for at least one goal to be scored in the first half. This market could offer value, particularly if both teams exhibit strong attacking tendencies early in the match.
Long-Term Trends Analysis & Profitability
Let’s analyze the long-term trends for both Hibernian and Dundee in matches with similar odds over the past three seasons, we can assess the value of betting on Over 0.5 First Half Goals for their upcoming clash.
Hibernian (Home Matches) – Long-Term Trends for Over 0.5 First Half Goals
Analyzing the last 10 home matches for Hibernian, where the odds for their win ranged between 2.0 and 2.3:
- Profit/Loss: Betting on Over 0.5 First Half Goals in these matches would have resulted in a profit of 1.45 units with an ROI of 14.5%, based on average odds of 1.46.
- Out of these 10 matches:
- 8 matches saw at least one goal in the first half (successful Over 0.5 First Half Goals bet).
- 2 matches did not see a goal in the first half (unsuccessful Over 0.5 First Half Goals bet).
Dundee (Away Matches) – Long-Term Trends for Over 0.5 First Half Goals
Analyzing the last 10 away matches for Dundee, where the odds for their win ranged between 3.3 and 3.8:
- Profit/Loss: Betting on Over 0.5 First Half Goals in these matches would have resulted in a loss of 1.18 units with an ROI of -11.8%, based on average odds of 1.50.
- Out of these 10 matches:
- 6 matches saw at least one goal in the first half (successful Over 0.5 First Half Goals bet).
- 4 matches did not see a goal in the first half (unsuccessful Over 0.5 First Half Goals bet).
Why We Look at Long-Term Trends
Long-term trends provide critical insights into how teams perform under similar conditions over extended periods. By analyzing past matches with comparable odds and circumstances, we can make more informed predictions for upcoming games. These trends are valuable for identifying patterns and opportunities, such as when teams consistently produce goals in the first half.
In this case, Hibernian has shown strong profitability in the Over 0.5 First Half Goals market in their home matches, while Dundee has had mixed results on the road. These insights help paint a clearer picture of where the value lies for this market.
Medium-Term Money Trends: Last 10 Home/Away Matches
Looking at the screenshot above, we can analyze how recent form impacts the potential for an Over 0.5 First Half Goals bet in this match. Let’s break down the recent performances of Hibernian at home and Dundee away, and see how they align with the long-term trends.
Hibernian (Home Matches) – Medium-Term Trends for Over 0.5 First Half Goals
Analyzing the last 10 home matches for Hibernian:
- Profit/Loss: Betting on Over 0.5 First Half Goals in these matches would have resulted in a profit of 0.68 units with an ROI of 6.8%, based on average odds of 1.34.
- Out of these 10 matches:
- 8 matches saw at least one goal in the first half (successful Over 0.5 First Half Goals bet).
- 2 matches did not see a goal in the first half (unsuccessful Over 0.5 First Half Goals bet).
Dundee (Away Matches) – Medium-Term Trends for Over 0.5 First Half Goals
Analyzing the last 10 away matches for Dundee:
- Profit/Loss: Betting on Over 0.5 First Half Goals in these matches would have resulted in a profit of 0.89 units with an ROI of 8.9%, based on average odds of 1.38.
- Out of these 10 matches:
- 8 matches saw at least one goal in the first half (successful Over 0.5 First Half Goals bet).
- 2 matches did not see a goal in the first half (unsuccessful Over 0.5 First Half Goals bet).
Why We Look at Medium-Term Trends
Medium-term trends focus on more recent performances, which can reveal shifts in form and tactics. Hibernian has continued to perform well at home, with a solid record of producing early goals in 8 of their last 10 matches. Dundee has also shown strong potential for first-half goals in their recent away games, with 8 of their last 10 matches seeing a goal before halftime.
Both teams exhibit strong tendencies toward early action, which reinforces the potential value in the Over 0.5 First Half Goals market.
Short-Term Money Trends: Last 6 Matches
Now that we have the short-term trends for both Hibernian and Dundee based on their last 6 matches, we can evaluate how recent form influences the likelihood of an Over 0.5 First Half Goals outcome.
Hibernian (All Matches) – Short-Term Trends for Over 0.5 First Half Goals
Analyzing the last 6 matches for Hibernian:
- Profit/Loss: Betting on Over 0.5 First Half Goals in these matches would have resulted in a loss of 0.75 units with an ROI of -12.5%, based on average odds of 1.33.
- Out of these 6 matches:
- 4 matches saw at least one goal in the first half (successful Over 0.5 First Half Goals bet).
- 2 matches did not see a goal in the first half (unsuccessful Over 0.5 First Half Goals bet).
Dundee (All Matches) – Short-Term Trends for Over 0.5 First Half Goals
Analyzing the last 6 matches for Dundee:
- Profit/Loss: Betting on Over 0.5 First Half Goals in these matches would have resulted in a profit of 2.13 units with an ROI of 35.5%, based on average odds of 1.36.
- Out of these 6 matches:
- 6 matches saw at least one goal in the first half (successful Over 0.5 First Half Goals bet).
- 0 matches did not see a goal in the first half (unsuccessful Over 0.5 First Half Goals bet).
Why We Look at Short-Term Trends
Short-term trends focus on the most recent form and provide a snapshot of current team dynamics. Hibernian has shown a mixed performance in recent matches, with a 50% success rate for Over 0.5 First Half Goals. On the other hand, Dundee has been more consistent in their recent matches, with 6 out of 6 games seeing at least one goal in the first half.
These trends indicate that Dundee may be more reliable for early goals in their recent form, while Hibernian presents a less predictable outcome. This short-term data is crucial for those looking to capitalize on immediate team form, especially in dynamic markets like Over 0.5 First Half Goals.
Head-to-Head (H2H) Matches: Over 0.5 First Half Goals Analysis
Having the head-to-head (H2H) stats between Hibernian and Dundee, let’s examine how these teams have performed in terms of first-half goals when facing each other.
H2H Matches – Trends for Over 0.5 First Half Goals
Analyzing the last 6 H2H matches between Hibernian and Dundee:
- Profit/Loss: Betting on Over 0.5 First Half Goals in these matches would have resulted in a loss of 0.29 units with an ROI of -4.83%, based on average odds of 1.44.
- Out of these 6 H2H matches:
- 4 matches saw at least one goal in the first half (successful Over 0.5 First Half Goals bet).
- 2 matches did not see a goal in the first half (unsuccessful Over 0.5 First Half Goals bet).
Why We Look at H2H Statistics
Head-to-head statistics provide insights into how two specific teams perform when they meet, which can sometimes reveal trends that aren’t visible when looking at their overall performances. In this case, H2H matches between Hibernian and Dundee show a moderate tendency towards early goals, with 4 out of the last 6 encounters producing a goal in the first half.
However, with a slight negative ROI in this market based on historical odds, it indicates that while there is potential, betting purely based on H2H trends requires careful consideration and should be weighed alongside other data points, such as current form and longer-term trends.
Poisson Distribution & 5% Poisson Value Brackets (League, Home, Away)
Analyzing the Poisson Distribution model and the value brackets, we can assess how well the teams have performed within specific probability ranges. This mathematical approach helps to predict the likelihood of certain outcomes, such as goals, based on expected goals (xG) data.
Last 6 Matches Poisson Distribution Model
- Poisson Probability (Eq. Odds): The probability of an Over 0.5 First Half Goals outcome, according to the Poisson model, is 0.87, which translates to equivalent odds of 1.15.
- Value (Recent Odds): The recent odds for Over 0.5 First Half Goals are 1.36, indicating a value of 0.12 when compared to the Poisson model’s prediction. This suggests a slight edge in favor of this market.
- Home xG (Hibernian): The expected goals for Hibernian in this match are 0.77, indicating moderate attacking potential in the first half.
- Away xG (Dundee): Dundee’s expected goals are 1.26, showing stronger attacking potential, which increases the likelihood of a goal being scored in the first half.
Premiership Profit/Loss Figures for the Poisson Value Bracket (0.1 – 0.15)
Looking at the broader Premiership figures within the Poisson value bracket of 0.1 to 0.15, we observe the following:
- Profit/Loss: Betting on matches in this value bracket across the Premiership would have resulted in a profit of 5.56 units with an ROI of 10.90%, based on average odds of 1.38.
This positive ROI suggests that the Poisson model’s predicted value range has historically been profitable, making this bracket a strong indicator of potential value.
Home Breakdown: Hibernian’s Profit/Loss Figures for the Poisson Value Bracket (0.1 – 0.15)
For Hibernian’s home matches within this Poisson value bracket:
- 13 matches were identified in this range.
- Profit/Loss: Betting on Over 0.5 First Half Goals in these matches would have resulted in a profit of 1.20 units with an ROI of 9.23%, based on average odds of 1.40.
This indicates that Hibernian has performed reasonably well in matches where the Poisson model identified value, suggesting a potential edge for this upcoming fixture.
Away Breakdown: Dundee’s Profit/Loss Figures for the Poisson Value Bracket (0.1 – 0.15)
For Dundee’s away matches within this Poisson value bracket:
- 2 matches were identified in this range.
- Profit/Loss: Betting on Over 0.5 First Half Goals in these matches would have resulted in a profit of 0.77 units with an ROI of 38.50%, based on average odds of 1.39.
Though based on a smaller sample size, Dundee has shown strong profitability in this bracket, further supporting the likelihood of an early goal in their upcoming match.
Why Poisson Distribution Models Matter
The Poisson Distribution model offers a data-driven approach to predicting football outcomes based on expected goals. By comparing the model’s probabilities with actual market odds, bettors and traders can identify value opportunities. The positive profit/loss figures in the relevant value bracket provide additional confidence in the potential of an Over 0.5 First Half Goals outcome for this match.
ELO Ratings Analysis
The ELO rating system helps assess the relative strength of teams based on their historical performances. By comparing ELO ratings, we can gain insights into the potential outcome of the upcoming match between Hibernian and Dundee.
League-Wide ELO Trends
- 111 matches with a similar ELO difference across the league over the last three seasons resulted in a profit of 6.7 units with an ROI of 6.04%, based on average odds of 1.49. This indicates that there is often value when betting in matches with comparable ELO differences.
Hibernian (ELO: 1307) – Home Matches with Similar ELO Difference
- Analyzing 8 home matches where Hibernian faced teams with a similar ELO difference, betting on these matches would have resulted in a profit of 3.19 units with an ROI of 39.88%, based on average odds of 1.4. This shows that Hibernian has performed well in these types of matches, offering strong potential for profitability.
Dundee (ELO: 1276) – Away Matches with Similar ELO Difference
- Analyzing 6 away matches where Dundee faced teams with a similar ELO difference, betting on these matches would have resulted in a loss of 1.75 units with an ROI of -29.17%, based on average odds of 1.44. Dundee has struggled in these types of matches, reflecting a less favourable betting opportunity.
Why ELO Ratings Matter
ELO ratings provide a clear view of the relative strengths of teams and help identify potential value in betting markets. Hibernian has demonstrated strong profitability in home matches with similar ELO differences, making them a potentially valuable option in this fixture. On the other hand, Dundee has had poor results in comparable away matches, which could signal caution for those considering betting on or against them.
This concludes the statistical breakdown for the Hibernian vs Dundee match. Based on the data from long-term trends, medium-term trends, short-term trends, Poisson distribution models, and ELO ratings, the Over 0.5 First Half Goals market shows promise for those looking to find value in this fixture.
Betting and Trading Advice: How to Approach This Match
Given the strong historical and current trends favouring early goals, here are some approaches to consider for betting and trading:
- Over 0.5 First Half Goals:
- With odds at 1.36, this market presents a relatively low-risk opportunity, especially given the strong data backing early goals from both teams. This bet is ideal for those looking for a straightforward wager with high potential for success.
- Trading on Betting Exchanges:
- For those trading on betting exchanges, the Over 0.5 First Half Goals market offers flexibility. Entering the market pre-match and managing the position in-play allows for profit-locking if a goal is scored early. The statistical trends support this approach, particularly with Dundee’s strong attacking xG data.
- In-Play Trading Opportunities:
- If you prefer to wait and react to the game as it unfolds, in-play trading offers another option. Watch the first 15-20 minutes, and if either team shows early attacking intent, consider entering the Over 0.5 First Half Goals market.
