Introduction
In this LaLiga2 clash, Eibar hosts Eldense in what promises to be a highly competitive encounter. Both teams are closely matched in the standings, adding extra weight to the outcome. Betting on the Both Teams To Score (BTTS) market presents an interesting proposition for this game, with odds currently set at 2.01. By analyzing long-term trends, recent form, head-to-head records, Poisson distribution models, and ELO ratings, we aim to assess whether backing BTTS offers value for bettors. This preview dives deep into the data, offering insights that could help you make an informed betting decision.
We are using the ANALYTICS PRO tool for this analysis.
1. Long-Term Profitability Trends
Looking at matches where both teams face opponents of similar strength, Eibar has been relatively unprofitable over the past three seasons when odds are between 1.7 and 1.9. Eibar’s BTTS trend in these situations shows tight, low-scoring affairs, including some shutouts at home.
Eldense, on the other hand, has shown stronger BTTS trends, especially when facing stronger teams with odds between 4.5 and 6.5, securing positive ROI and competitive results. Their open play style and vulnerability at the back have led to many games where both teams find the net.
Key Insight:
Eibar’s defensive structure tends to limit BTTS outcomes in long-term matches at home, while Eldense’s trends suggest their matches often result in both teams scoring.
2. Medium-Term Trends (Last 10 Home/Away Matches)
Eibar has struggled in the last 10 home matches, with a negative ROI of -23.1%, primarily due to a drop in form and tighter games. Their focus on structured defence leads to fewer BTTS outcomes. Eldense’s medium-term away form, however, shows a healthy ROI of 48.4%, with a significant number of BTTS games. They’ve often found themselves both scoring and conceding goals when playing away from home.
Key Insight:
Eldense’s medium-term away form suggests frequent BTTS outcomes, while Eibar remains more cautious at home, impacting the likelihood of BTTS.
3. Short-Term Trends (Last 6 Matches)
In the last 6 matches, Eibar has seen a mixed form, with several low-scoring games resulting in losses. They’ve been struggling to balance attack and defence, leading to tighter scorelines. On the flip side, Eldense’s short-term form is stronger, with their matches typically involving goals at both ends, highlighting their attacking prowess but also defensive frailty.
Short-Term Performance:
- Eibar: ROI of -5.83%, indicating struggles in recent form with fewer BTTS outcomes.
- Eldense: ROI of 71%, further solidifying the trend of BTTS in their recent matches.
Key Insight:
Eldense’s recent form makes BTTS more likely, though Eibar’s conservative style could reduce BTTS chances.
4. Head-to-Head and Standings
The H2H records between these teams favour BTTS. Both previous encounters resulted in BTTS (5-1 and 2-1), indicating that when these sides meet, there is a propensity for goals at both ends. Additionally, Eibar and Eldense are neck-and-neck in the standings, with just one point separating them, adding competitive tension to the fixture.
Current Form in Standings:
- Eibar: 9th with 12 points
- Eldense: 11th with 11 points
Key Insight:
H2H and competitive standings suggest that both teams will be pushing for goals, increasing the likelihood of BTTS.
5. Poisson Distribution Analysis
The Poisson distribution model, which calculates the likelihood of goals scored based on past performance, shows:
- Home xG for Eibar: 1.48
- Away xG for Eldense: 1.50
The implied Poisson probability of BTTS is 0.60 (implied odds of 1.67), while the market offers odds of 2.01. This indicates a positive value bet scenario, as the Poisson model suggests BTTS is more likely than the market odds reflect.
Profit/Loss for Poisson Value Brackets:
- Eibar has performed well with 62% ROI in the relevant Poisson value bracket.
- Eldense has an even stronger record, boasting 123.8% ROI in this bracket.
- LaLiga2 shows good profitability for matches within this value bracket with a 17.7% ROI from 46 games.
Key Insight:
The Poisson distribution offers strong support for backing BTTS, with both teams performing well within the value bracket in LaLiga2.
6. ELO Ratings
ELO analysis shows that Eibar’s home matches with a similar ELO difference have been relatively tight, with mixed BTTS outcomes. However, Eldense has excelled in away matches with similar ELO differentials, with a consistent pattern of BTTS results. Eldense’s attacking approach, even against stronger teams, increases the likelihood of both teams scoring.
ELO Analysis:
- Eibar: Mixed results, with only 50% of the matches resulting in BTTS outcomes.
- Eldense: Stronger BTTS potential, with a 71% chance of both teams scoring.
Key Insight:
ELO analysis favours Eldense in terms of BTTS outcomes, suggesting their style and form make BTTS a valuable bet.
7. Team News & Injuries
Eibar: Key players in defence have been largely available, which could reinforce their tendency to keep things tight at the back. However, there are no major injury concerns reported ahead of the match.
Eldense: Eldense might miss a couple of players in defence due to minor injuries, which could make them more vulnerable at the back and increase the chances of conceding, further boosting the likelihood of BTTS.
Verdict: Back BTTS at Odds of 2.01
Taking into account the Poisson distribution, medium- and short-term trends, and ELO analysis, Eldense’s away form and attacking output, combined with some defensive fragility, make BTTS a value bet at 2.01 odds. While Eibar tends to be more conservative at home, Eldense’s style of play is likely to force an open game, leading to goals from both sides.
