On October 18th, 2024, Guingamp will take on Pau in a Ligue 2 fixture at Stade du Roudourou, scheduled for 19:00. This match offers a fascinating opportunity for bettors looking for value, especially in the Over 2.5 goals market. Current odds are set at 1.90 for Guingamp, 3.87 for a draw, and 4.66 for Pau. The Over 2.5 goals market is priced at 1.88, suggesting a decent probability of an entertaining, high-scoring match.
Why Stats Alone Are Not Enough
It’s crucial to understand that raw statistics mean very little without profitability and odds analysis. In this preview, we look at various profitability factors to determine where the true value lies, giving us a solid foundation for making an informed betting decision. To do this, we analyze several sections:
Long Term Stats
This analysis is based on past matches against teams of similar ability using 1X2 odds brackets. For Guingamp’s home matches within these specific odds ranges (1.8 to 2.1), profitability over the last three seasons has been strong, with an ROI of 33.4%. Pau’s corresponding away stats show a negative ROI, suggesting value lies with Guingamp or a higher-scoring game.
Medium Term Trends
Looking at medium-term trends, we focus on Guingamp’s last 10 home matches and Pau’s last 10 away matches. Guingamp has earned a profit of 5.6 units with a 56% ROI, while Pau’s away record over the same number of matches yielded 6.14 units and a 61.4% ROI. Both teams show favourable profitability, indicating an increased probability of a competitive match that could result in several goals.
Short Term Trends
The last six matches for both teams provide us with short-term profitability trends. Guingamp’s performance has been excellent, with 5.03 units of profit and an impressive 83.83% ROI. Pau has also been profitable, with 0.58 units and a 9.67% ROI. Both sides’ recent strong performances suggest an open game, further strengthening the argument for Over 2.5 goals.
Head-to-Head Trends
Analyzing the H2H record of these teams in their last six matches, Guingamp has dominated with consistent wins, and an average odds of 2.14 indicates value. The profit/loss is positive, with a 77.17% ROI, which points towards goals being a likely outcome whenever these teams meet.
Poisson Distribution
The Poisson Distribution helps us understand the expected number of goals in a match, providing a probability estimate based on historical data. In the last six matches, the Poisson model suggests a value of 31% for Over 2.5 goals, with home xG (expected goals) of 1.36 for Guingamp and away xG of 3.24 for Pau. Ligue 2 profit/loss figures for this Poisson value bracket (0.29 – 0.34) show an ROI of 43.64%. Additionally, Pau’s profitability within this value bracket stands at 5.50%, further highlighting the potential for a high-scoring game.
ELO Ratings
ELO ratings help us gauge the relative strength of the teams. For this fixture, the ELO difference is 16, suggesting a slight edge for Guingamp. The profitability figures for similar ELO differences show that Guingamp’s home matches have been quite lucrative with an ROI of 70.75%, while Pau’s away matches have been less so, with a negative ROI of -3.88%. This implies that Guingamp, at home, is well-positioned to capitalize on their relative strength, potentially contributing to a higher goal tally.
Weighing All Factors & Recommended Bet
After analyzing all of these factors, it’s evident that the Over 2.5 goals market offers potential value. Both teams have demonstrated profitability across multiple scenarios that imply an open game, with recent form, medium-term trends, and long-term stats all suggesting a high probability of several goals.
Guingamp’s strength at home, coupled with Pau’s relatively weaker defence on the road, further supports the prediction of a high-scoring encounter. The odds of 1.88 for Over 2.5 goals are appealing given the profitability data and historical trends we’ve reviewed.
Final Thoughts
The key to successful betting is finding value, and this analysis suggests that the Over 2.5 goals market is where that value lies for Guingamp vs Pau. The combination of recent form, head-to-head dominance, and the insights from profitability and odds analysis across different metrics supports this bet. As always, make sure to wager responsibly, considering all risks involved.
