The Bundesliga continues to deliver some of the most exciting football in Europe, and the upcoming fixture between Borussia Dortmund and Heidenheim on September 13th, 2024 promises to be no different. With Dortmund considered heavy favorites, currently priced at 1.42 for a win, Heidenheim will have to defy the odds at 8.58 to secure an upset. But it’s not just about match outcomes; there’s a lot of value hidden in other markets such as Over 1.5 1st Half Goals, currently priced at 2.18.
In this article, we’ll dive deep into the statistical trends, head-to-head comparisons, and key metrics that could provide an edge for bettors looking to find value in this fixture. Whether you’re a fan of Borussia Dortmund’s attacking firepower or you’re betting on Heidenheim’s resilience as an underdog, this analysis will shed light on where the best opportunities lie. Let’s not forget that Heidenheim is coming to this match as Bundesliga leaders!
But remember, as with any Bundesliga game, anything can happen, and we will analyze various aspects of both teams to determine if this match provides a good betting opportunity.
Now, let’s move into the statistical breakdown of this thrilling encounter.
Analytics PRO analysis
1. Long-Term Trends
The long-term trends show the overall tendencies of both teams over the last three seasons.
- Borussia Dortmund Home Matches: Dortmund has performed well in the long term when their odds were between 1.3 and 1.5 in the win market. Over the last 10 home matches in this range, Dortmund has returned a profit of +4.1 units with an impressive ROI of 41%. This suggests Dortmund consistently meets expectations at home, often leading to higher-scoring games, a positive indicator for an Over 1.5 First Half Goals bet.
- Heidenheim Away Matches: Heidenheim has no matches recorded in the same odds range (7.3 to 9.8) over the last three seasons, which means we lack long-term data to assess their tendencies when they are heavy underdogs. This lack of history adds a layer of uncertainty, but their underdog status suggests they are likely to concede early.
2. Medium-Term Trends
Medium-term trends focus on the last 10 matches, providing a more recent picture of form.
- Dortmund’s Last 10 Home Matches: Dortmund’s medium-term form at home remains consistent with their long-term data. Over the last 10 matches, they have posted a solid +3.84 units profit with a 38.4% ROI. This shows that Dortmund has maintained their attacking strength, making the Over 1.5 First Half Goals bet more viable.
- Heidenheim’s Last 10 Away Matches: Heidenheim’s last 10 away matches have been mixed, with a profit of +0.65 units and a 6.5% ROI. While they are not strong performers, they have managed to get involved in higher-scoring matches occasionally, making them potential contributors to early goals.
3. Short-Term Trends
Short-term trends capture the very latest form, often a critical indicator for volatile markets like First Half Goals.
- Dortmund’s Last 6 Matches: Dortmund’s last six home games have returned a profit of +1.87 units with a 31.17% ROI. This strong short-term performance adds weight to the likelihood of early goals.
- Heidenheim’s Last 6 Matches: Heidenheim’s away form is also positive, with a profit of +1.51 units and a 25.17% ROI. This shows that they have recently been involved in matches with goals, another good sign for the Over 1.5 First Half Goals bet.
4. Head-to-Head Data
Looking at the head-to-head records between Dortmund and Heidenheim offers crucial context for how these teams perform against each other.
- Last 2 Head-to-Head Matches: The last two meetings between these teams have been mixed. Dortmund won one match 2-0, and another ended 0-0. The ROI from these matches is slightly negative (-6%), which could be a slight cautionary sign for expecting goals from both sides, but Dortmund’s superior quality in the Bundesliga may outweigh this.
5. Poisson Distribution Models
The Poisson distribution model gives us a mathematical probability of over 1.5 First Half Goals based on expected goals (xG).
- Poisson Probability: The model assigns a probability of 0.57 for Over 1.5 First Half Goals, which translates to odds of 1.75. Given that the current market odds are 2.18, there appears to be a value gap, suggesting the market may be undervaluing the chances of early goals.
- Bundesliga Performance in the Same Bracket: The Bundesliga matches in the same Poisson bracket have returned a total profit of +8.85 units with an 18.06% ROI, further supporting the potential value in betting on Over 1.5 First Half Goals in this match.
- Dortmund’s matches in this value bracket have usually been quite profitable with 4 wins out of their last 6 matches.
- Heidenheim’s record has been less impressive with 1 win out of their last 3 matches for O1.5 FHG.
6. ELO Ratings
ELO ratings give insight into the relative strength of both teams.
- Dortmund ELO Rating: 1870
- Heidenheim ELO Rating: 1674
- ELO Difference: 197 points
- Dortmund ELO Performance: Dortmund has been dominant at home when facing teams with a similar ELO difference. Over 8 matches, they have returned a profit of +2.75 units with a 34.38% ROI, highlighting their strength against weaker opposition. This is a strong indicator that Dortmund could dominate early, leading to first-half goals.
- Heidenheim ELO Performance: Heidenheim, on the other hand, has struggled when playing away with a similar ELO difference. Their only match in this bracket ended in a 1-0 loss, resulting in a loss of -1 unit. This suggests that Heidenheim is likely to concede goals early against stronger opposition.
After International Break: How Did They Perform This Time In Recent Years?
An interesting angle to consider for this match is how both Borussia Dortmund and Heidenheim performed immediately following the international break in previous seasons (orange font on the picture). This can give us valuable insights into the teams’ ability to resume competitive form after a period of rest or disruption.
- Borussia Dortmund’s Post-International Break Matches: Dortmund has played four matches during the same period in the last four seasons. The team posted a total profit of +2.69 units with an impressive ROI of 67.25%. These results suggest that Dortmund tends to come back strongly after international breaks, with a decent return on goals in these fixtures.
- Heidenheim’s Post-International Break Matches: Heidenheim has only played one match in the same period, but they delivered a solid performance, winning 2-0 against Werder Bremen with a strong ROI of 152%. Although the sample size is small, it indicates that Heidenheim can also perform well after a break.
Conclusion
The statistical analysis paints a strong picture for Over 1.5 First Half Goals in this match. Dortmund’s long-term, medium-term, and short-term form all suggest early goals, while Heidenheim’s struggles against stronger teams and poor ELO performance point to them being vulnerable in the first half. The Poisson model also indicates value at the current odds, making this a promising bet for those looking for a value edge in the early stages of the match.
Betting Strategy: Timing Your Entry for Value
For a market like Over 1.5 First Half Goals, timing your bet can significantly improve your chances of maximizing value.
- Waiting for Better Odds (5-10 minutes): A common approach for betting on Over 1.5 First Half Goals is to wait for 5-10 minutes into the game before placing the bet. If no goal is scored in this time frame, the odds for this market will rise from the pre-match offering of 2.18. This strategy allows you to get better value for your money, especially if the game has an intense start but no immediate goals.
- Safer Approach (After 20th Minute): For those seeking a more conservative approach, waiting until after the 20th minute and betting on Over 0.5 First Half Goals can be a safer alternative. By this time, you’ll have a better sense of how the teams are performing, and the odds for Over 0.5 FHG will have increased, offering more value with less risk.
These timing strategies can help you secure better odds while reducing the risk associated with betting too early in the match.
