In this analysis, we’re diving into a match from Poland’s Ekstraklasa between Piast Gliwice and Puszcza Niepołomice. We will examine an intriguing long-shot value opportunity from the Under 1.5 Goals market at odds of 2.96. While long shots are riskier bets due to their lower probability of success, they can deliver great value when properly researched. However, it’s crucial to implement sound bankroll management to mitigate the risk.
A “long shot” bet typically involves higher odds with lower probabilities, meaning you’re taking a calculated risk for a higher reward. These bets carry the inherent risk of losing more often than winning. Hence, a well-strategized approach and responsible staking are essential to maintaining profitability in the long term.
Now, let’s evaluate the long-term profitability of this bet through our usual Analytics PRO analysis.
1. Long-Term Trends: Under 1.5 Goals
When analyzing the long-term trends (matches against similar-level teams – based on odds brackets), we notice a solid edge in the Under 1.5 Goals market:
- Piast Gliwice’s home matches: Over the past three seasons, Piast Gliwice has seen Under 1.5 Goals hit in 7 matches, returning a profit of +5.97 units at average odds of 3.34, representing an ROI of 85.29%.
- Puszcza Niepołomice’s away matches: On the flip side, Puszcza’s away fixtures in the same period also show profitability, with 6 matches returning a profit of +3.77 units at average odds of 4.31, resulting in an ROI of 62.83%.
The long-term trends give us a favorable indication that the Under 1.5 Goals bet offers value in this match.
2. Medium-Term Trends: Last 10 Home/Away Matches
A more recent look at the last 10 home/away matches highlights the following:
- Piast Gliwice’s last 10 home matches: Although there has been a slight dip in profitability with a loss of -3.34 units, the Under 1.5 Goals has hit in key matches against defensive sides, keeping us cautiously optimistic.
- Puszcza Niepołomice’s last 10 away matches: Puszcza’s away games, on the other hand, show a significant profit of +17.17 units at an average price of 3.94, with an ROI of 171.7%. This reinforces the long-shot value on the Under 1.5 Goals market in their away games.
3. Short-Term Trends: Last 6 Matches
- Piast Gliwice’s last 6 matches: The short-term trends show a break-even position for Piast with a slight loss of -0.02 units. The Under 1.5 Goals has not been a frequent outcome, but tight matches against stronger opposition, like Raków Częstochowa, have kept the total under control.
- Puszcza Niepołomice’s last 6 matches: Puszcza has shown a small profit of +4.42 units at odds averaging 3.52, with an ROI of 73.67%, emphasizing their ability to keep games tight on the road.
4. Head-to-Head Data: Past Encounters
In their recent head-to-head encounters:
- The Under 1.5 Goals has been successful in both of the last two meetings, with a cumulative profit of +4.15 units and an ROI of 207.5% at odds of 3.08. Both fixtures ended with 1-0 scorelines, further adding to the rationale for backing this long-shot market.
5. Poisson Distribution Models
The Poisson distribution model provides an important framework for analyzing expected goal probabilities, helping us assess whether the market odds offer value in the Under 1.5 Goals market.
- Piast Gliwice’s Home Expected Goals (xG): 0.94
- Puszcza Niepołomice’s Away Expected Goals (xG): 1.00
These xG figures align well with a low-scoring match, suggesting that both teams struggle to create many clear-cut chances in their respective home and away matches.
Poisson Probability Breakdown:
- Poisson Probability (Under 1.5 Goals): The model gives a probability of 0.42 for Under 1.5 Goals, which translates to equivalent odds of 2.38. Although this is slightly lower than the market price of 2.96, the potential value of the bet remains intact due to the broader profitability trends in the odds brackets.
League-wide Poisson Value Bracket Profitability:
In the Ekstraklasa league within the same Poisson value bracket (0.06 to 0.11), the overall profitability is quite substantial:
- Profit/Loss: +15.68 units
- Average Odds: 3.83
- Return on Investment (ROI): 23.40%
This bracket covers low-scoring games across the league, and we see that games priced similarly in terms of expected goals (low goal probability) have been profitable for bettors focusing on this market. The overall profitability further supports the value in backing Under 1.5 Goals for this match.
Team-Specific Poisson Performance:
- Piast Gliwice’s Poisson Bracket Performance:
- Poisson Value Bracket (0.06 – 0.11): In home matches where the Poisson value falls between 0.06 and 0.11, Piast Gliwice has delivered consistent results:
- Number of Matches: 7
- Profit/Loss: +5.63 units
- Average Odds: 3.26
- ROI: 80.43%
- Poisson Value Bracket (0.06 – 0.11): In home matches where the Poisson value falls between 0.06 and 0.11, Piast Gliwice has delivered consistent results:
- Puszcza Niepołomice’s Poisson Bracket Performance:
- Poisson Value Bracket (0.06 – 0.11): Puszcza Niepołomice’s away matches within the same Poisson bracket have shown an impressive return:
- Number of Matches: 4
- Profit/Loss: +6.30 units
- Average Odds: 3.63
- ROI: 157.50%
- Poisson Value Bracket (0.06 – 0.11): Puszcza Niepołomice’s away matches within the same Poisson bracket have shown an impressive return:
The Poisson model, combined with league-wide and team-specific performance within the relevant odds brackets, shows strong profitability and value in betting Under 1.5 Goals for this match. The expected goal stats, along with Piast Gliwice and Puszcza Niepołomice’s consistent performance in this market, suggest that this long shot holds a realistic chance of success despite its high odds.
6. ELO Ratings
The ELO Ratings for this fixture also present some insights:
- Piast Gliwice (ELO: 1429) home matches against similarly ranked teams have yielded a profit of +2.25 units with an ROI of 28.13% at odds of 3.4.
- Puszcza Niepołomice (ELO: 1334) has been involved in low-scoring games away from home, returning a profit of +2.71 units and an impressive ROI of 67.75% at an average price of 3.9.
These ELO-based trends align well with the expectation of a low-scoring game.
Conclusion
Based on the analysis from long-term, medium-term, and short-term trends, as well as the head-to-head data, Poisson distribution models, and ELO ratings, there is a strong case for betting on Under 1.5 Goals at odds of 2.96.
- Long-term and head-to-head trends favor a low-scoring match.
- Poisson models and ELO ratings support a lack of goals from both sides, with a strong statistical base.
Alternative Approaches to This Match:
- In-play trading: Consider hedging after no goals by halftime to lock in profit.
- Backing Under 2.5 Goals: A safer alternative is to back Under 2.5 Goals at 1.68, allowing for more flexibility while maintaining value.
- Backing Under 2.5 Goals after a quick goal: If an early goal is scored, you may find value in backing Under 2.5 Goals at better odds, anticipating a more cautious remainder of the match.
With these insights, you can approach this match with a structured, value-based strategy. Be sure to manage your bankroll responsibly, as long shots can be volatile but rewarding with proper analysis and execution.
